The New “Super Cycle”

The global economy is transitioning into a new “super cycle,” with artificial intelligence and decarbonization as key drivers, according to Peter Oppenheimer, the head of macro research in Europe at Goldman Sachs.

“We are moving clearly into a different super cycle,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday. Super cycles are characterized by extended periods of economic expansion, accompanied by increasing GDP, high demand for goods leading to higher prices, and low levels of unemployment.

According to Oppenheimer, the most significant recent super cycle began in the early 1980s and was characterized by interest rates and inflation peaking before a decades-long period of falling capital costs, inflation, and rates. This period also saw increased globalization and reduced geopolitical risks.

However, not all of these factors are expected to continue in the same manner

“We’re not likely to see interest rates trending down as aggressively over the next decade or so, we’re seeing some pushback to globalization, and, of course, we’re seeing increased geopolitical tensions as well,” said Oppenheimer.

Despite these challenges, there are forces that could have a positive impact on the economy, namely artificial intelligence and decarbonization.

AI is still in its early stages, but as it is used increasingly as the basis for new products and services, it could lead to a “positive effect” for stocks, according to Oppenheimer. AI and productivity, often linked to debates and concerns about human jobs being replaced or changed, will likely impact the economy.

“The second thing is [that] we haven’t yet seen, and I think we’re relatively positive that we will see, [is] an improvement in productivity on the back of the applications of AI which could be positive for growth and of course for margins,” Oppenheimer said.

While AI and decarbonization are relatively new concepts, there are historical parallels, according to Oppenheimer. The early 1970s and early 1980s, for example, were “not so dissimilar” to current developments. Factors such as elevated inflation and interest rates, as well as growing geopolitical tensions, rising taxes, and increased regulation, are similar to today.

In other ways, current shifts can be seen as reflective of changes even further back in history, such as the late 19th century, which saw modernization and industrialization fueled by infrastructure and technological developments alongside significant increases in productivity.

Microsoft’s New AI key

Microsoft has revamped its keyboards with a new AI key designed for seamless access to Copilot, Microsoft’s new AI, on the latest Windows 11 PCs. A major investor in OpenAI, Microsoft has actively infused AI across its product spectrum, notably within Microsoft 365 and Bing search since 2023. These innovative keyboards, set to debut in February, were unveiled at CES. Copilot, featured prominently, aids in various tasks such as search queries, email composition, and image creation.

Yusuf Mehdi, a Microsoft executive, describes this update as transformative, streamlining and elevating user interactions. This integration follows Microsoft’s dedication to enhancing user engagement. Copilot’s prior assimilation into Office 365 was the first integration Microsoft made.

Google, with its AI system named Bard, presents competition, yet Microsoft’s collaboration with OpenAI, notably marked by the introduction of ChatGPT in 2022, has injected a new dimension into the rivalry. However, Copilot, built upon OpenAI’s GPT-4, has drawn the attention of the UK competition watchdog. Which has scrutinizing Microsoft’s relationship with OpenAI amid recent boardroom tumult.

1,000-Year-Old Legal System Uses AI

In a bold move, England and Wales’s 1,000-year-old legal system has taken a cautious step into the realm of artificial intelligence. The Courts and Tribunals Judiciary recently granted judges permission to use AI in the process of crafting opinions. However, they have emphasized the need to tread carefully, as AI technology can sometimes produce inaccurate or misleading information.

Master of the Rolls Geoffrey Vos, the second-highest ranking judge in England and Wales, stated, “Judges do not need to shun the careful use of AI. But they must ensure that they protect confidence and take full personal responsibility for everything they produce.”

This approach comes at a time when the legal profession is grappling with the potential impact of AI on their field, including the possibility of AI replacing lawyers, assisting in jury selection, or even making judgments. The judiciary’s approach is a measured one, aiming to strike a balance between embracing technological advancements and maintaining the integrity of the legal system.

Legal experts like Ryan Abbott, a law professor at the University of Surrey and author of “The Reasonable Robot: Artificial Intelligence and the Law,” have welcomed the move and believe it will serve as a model for other countries grappling with the role of AI in the legal system.

While the U.S. Supreme Court has acknowledged the benefits and drawbacks of AI, no federal guidelines have been established. Individual courts and judges at the federal and local levels have set their own rules.

The English and Welsh judiciary’s guidance comes with numerous warnings about the limitations of AI and potential pitfalls if users are not aware of how it works. For example, it should not be used for research or legal analyses, as it can fabricate information and provide misleading, inaccurate, and biased information.

Judges were also warned about the potential risks of disclosing confidential information to AI systems and the fact that much of the legal material used to train AI comes from the internet and is often based on U.S. law.

While the thought of AI in law is a bit nerve wracking. It could be that the cautious integration of AI in the English and Welsh legal system will create a proactive and measured approach to AI adoption. That way the technology is used responsibly and ethically.

This reminds me of when that Manhattan judge got mad at some lawyers that used chatGPT for court case research. Poor guys didn’t realize that AI can just make stuff up. 😅

Tee-rific Art: 25,000 Golf Tees Form Tiger Woods Portrait

Missouri artist Aaron Norris recently completed a 6-foot x 6-foot wall art of Tiger Woods using 25,000 new and broken golf tees. Norris, a 43-year-old golf enthusiast, got the idea from observing broken tees on his local golf course. He collected the tees over the summer and fall, with some help from neighbors who played golf.

The portrait, depicting Tiger Woods reading a putt, has already been sold for an undisclosed amount. Norris spent $400 on additional tees, with roughly half collected from the golf courses. This unique piece adds to Norris’s portfolio, which includes works like a Muhammad Ali oil canvas, an Elon Musk mosaic bead portrait, and a painting of NFL football stars, the Kelce brothers.

While Norris has received many sports commissions, this Tiger Woods portrait marks his first use of actual sports equipment in his artwork.

Drugs from Canada

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Friday, January 5th, approved Florida’s plan to import cheaper prescription drugs from Canada, marking a significant stride forward in a broader effort to rein in drug costs in the U.S. This is a first-in-the-nation move that could reduce costs for Americans but faces fierce opposition from the pharmaceutical industry. The FDA has also stated its commitment to working with other states seeking to import drugs from Canada.

Patients in the U.S. pay significantly more for medicines than they do in Canada and some other countries. Drug importation could open up a new and cheaper source of drugs beyond the retail and mail-order pharmacies that Americans typically rely on to fill prescriptions. Along with Florida, other states such as Colorado, North Dakota, and Vermont have their own drug importation plans in place, which will require FDA approvals.

However, Florida’s newly approved plan will likely face hurdles before it takes effect, including potential lawsuits from the pharmaceutical industry. Drugmakers have long argued that importation may introduce counterfeit medicines into the U.S. supply chain and harm patients — a concern the FDA previously raised because the agency cannot guarantee the safety of those drugs.

The FDA’s Friday approval appears to have guardrails that aim to mitigate potential safety issues. Before Florida can distribute Canadian drugs, the state must send the FDA details on the medications it plans to import, ensure that those treatments are not counterfeit or ineffective, and relabel those drugs to be consistent with FDA-approved labeling.

Florida must also submit quarterly reports to the agency about cost savings and potential safety issues, among other obligations. The FDA’s approval allows Florida to import drugs for two years from the date of the first drug shipment.

“These proposals must demonstrate the programs would result in significant cost savings to consumers without adding risk of exposure to unsafe or ineffective drugs,” FDA Commissioner Robert Califf said in a statement.

The pharmaceutical industry pushed back on the FDA’s move on Friday. Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), the industry’s biggest lobbying group, called the FDA’s approval of Florida’s plan “reckless” and said it is considering “all options for preventing this policy from harming patients.”

Hopefully, this new plan can give some much needed relief to those who are reliant on the more expensive pharmaceuticals.